If Mr. XYZ who lives in Nigeria had negotiated a forward contract for the supply of diesel to his household for November 2016 around November 2015 period.
Is it safe to say that Mr. XYZ would have successfully hedge against the price risk relating to diesel???? .Well the answer is Mr. XYZ would have registered significant savings depending on his given location within the country.It is no secret that the purchase price of diesel in Nigeria has changed across various locations (i.e. States) there is exist some sort of price disparity.
The chart above tell us that the price of Diesel in Nigeria moved significantly across some states of the federal republic of Nigeria over a 3 month period.
From the table above we also carried out year over year analysis of the price of diesel paid by Nigerian households and business, Along with the various price differentials .
The location with the highest price differentials is Zamfara state within the north west geopolitical region of Nigeria with about N56.46k higher than Nov 2015 price of diesel.
From the chart above we can clearly observe that year over year purchase price of diesel by households in Nigerians at various geopolitical zones shows a significant movement in the price of diesel from Nov 2015 to Nov 2016.
In conclusion it safe to say that households in Nigeria are mostly like going to have to deal with more price fluctuations of diesel . Households and business may have to take more proactive measures towards preparing themselves for the challenges ahead.
Well it is no longer news that the price of petrol in Nigerian has change from
N86.5k to N145. Today we examine from the data if government policy actually corrected some of price anomalies that characterized the petrol scarcity crisis which rocked the country early this year.
Data clearly shows how some states have benefited from the new price adjustments (paid less compared to the previous periods during petrol scarcity ) some examples include states like Ekiti which once paid
N202.78k as at April 2016 but after government`s new price policy implementation, average purchase price of petrol by households as at May 2016 stood at N156.39k representing a 22.87% fall in price.
Anambra which once paid
N193.85k as at April 2016 after government`s new policy implementation,average purchase price of petrol by households as at May 2016 stood at N147.08k representing a 24.13% fall in price.
However the same cannot be said for all states within the federation , as some states which enjoyed preferential treatment with regards to the old price and supply regulation policies ,now pay more following the new policy by government.
For instance Lagos which once paid an average price of
N92.59k as at April 2016 after government`s new policy implementation,average purchase price of petrol by households as at May 2016 stood at N144.75k representing a 56.33% rise in price.
The Federal Capital Territory which once paid an average price of
N107 as at April 2016 after government`s new policy implementation,
average purchase price of petrol by households as at May 2016 stood at
N145 representing a 35.51% rise in price.
We await June 2016 data release by Nbs for further interpretation .
Over the years price of petrol as been regulated by various successive governments in Nigeria. In 2012 the Federal government announced the complete removal of petrol subsidy (Petrol was priced at N141 naira per liter ) which lead to a nationwide protests after which the government agreed to a partial removal of subsidy (Petrol was priced at N97 naira per liter ).
In Jan 2015 government announced a price decrease in the regulated price of petrol (Petrol was priced at N87 naira per liter ). In January 2016 government also announced another price decrease (Petrol was Priced at N86.50 naira per liter )
Today the country is currently experiencing fuel supply challenges , government has announced a new price hike on 11th may 2016 signaling the removal of petrol subsidy (Petrol now priced at N145 naira per liter ).
Will this new policy finally ease supply challenges and stimulate more investment into the petroleum sector??????
If you are living in Nigeria then you must be familiar with the petrol crisis that occurred some weeks ago where many Nigerians had great difficulty in buying petrol for their cars and generators . Many experts offer diverse opinions with regards to the cause and solutions to the petrol crisis.
Presently the government officially pegged the price of petrol at
N86.50 per liter, some have argued that its not just possible to have a uniform price of petrol across the entire country owing to many differentiated variable cost due to diverse distribution challenges of conveying products from source to various locations.
Presently Nigeria has about 3 petroleum refineries which are not yet operating at optimal capacity hence the government has to import petrol from overseas to meet up with the shortfall.
From the chart above Lagos state has one of the lowest average purchase price of petrol paid by households, one very important factor responsible for this situation is the presence of a sea port in Lagos through which importation of petrol is facilitated . Also note Lagos does not have any petroleum refinery .
From the charts above there exist price disparity among various geopolitical zones in the country.South west with the lowest average purchase price of petrol paid by households and south east has the highest purchase price paid by households.
In conclusion it very much safe to say that the price of petrol in Nigeria is not at par across the entire states , because some states have certain comparative advantages (closeness to source ) and challenges (high distribution cost).
The Price of crude oil has taken a big hit (fall in prices) , federally allocated revenue from the sale of crude oil to all states within Nigeria have been affected (declining revenues). This current trend has affected the fiscal policies of many states , with a lot of states having challenges in meeting up with their obligations. The internally generated revenues (IGR) constitutes other source of incomes to the states apart from the federally allocated revenue from the sales of crude oil.
States would now have to rely more on increasing internally generated revenue by ensuring everyone pays his or her own fair share of taxes. State that can effectively and efficiently increase their Internally generated revenues would find fiscal policy implementation less of a headache than those would can`t.
The visualisation below shows the IGR for 36 states within the federation the size of the bubble is an indication of the amount Internally generated revenue for the 2014 year.
Concluding remarks it is hope that public policy makers would take concrete steps at improving their IGR to avoid fiscal policy crisis.